RMIT experts available for comment on US midterm elections

Emma Shortis (0430 358 798 or emma.shortis@rmit.edu.au)   

Topics: US elections, US midterm elections, US history, US politics, Trump administration, US-Australia relations

“The midterms will be President Donald Trump’s first real test since his election in 2016. The outcome will shape the rest of his presidency and determine what his administration can do for the next two years. They may well be a critical turning point for this already scandal-rocked administration.

“Because voting is not compulsory in the United States, the result of the midterms is very difficult to predict—no matter what pollsters say. Turnout will be crucial, which is why both Democrats and Republicans are trying so hard to energise their supporters. Historical trends suggest that there will be a swing against Trump and the Republican Party. The Democrats may well be able to retake the House and, perhaps even the Senate, which would be disastrous for Trump and his agenda.

“The political atmosphere will likely become even more volatile in the lead up to November 6 because the stakes are so high. In recent days, some of Trump’s favourite targets—including Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and CNN—have been sent live explosive devices in clear acts of political terrorism. As Trump whips up anger and racist sentiment, the political storm surrounding the upcoming elections, whatever the result, is not likely to clear any time soon.”

Emma Shortis is a Research Officer at the EU Centre in the School of Global, Urban and Social Studies at RMIT University. She has recently returned from a year in the United States, where she was a Fox-Zucker International Fellow at Yale University, working on her PhD in history. Emma is becoming a regular media commentator on the history and current politics of the US, tailored for an Australian audience.

Professor Joe Siracusa (0409 878 331 or joseph.siracusa@rmit.edu.au)

Topics: US politics, Us political history, midterm elections

“The Democrats are forecast to make gains in the House when the voters go to the polls on November 6, while Republicans may fare better in the Senate race, where they hold the advantage.

“A Democratic victory would put President Donald Trump under the microscope.

“While all the attention is on the House and Senate, the national scene, it's at the state level where many of the key policies decisions are made, from the power of organised labour to taxes to abortion to environmental rules.

“The 2018 midterm elections are also the story of diversity as an astonishing number of women - 180 on the Democratic side and more than 50 Republican women - are nominees of their party in the House.’

Professor Joe Siracusa is a lecturer in the School of Global, Urban and Social Studies at RMIT University.  He has analysed US elections results for four decades and written 30 books on American politics. He is well-known for his expert commentary on American politics, terrorism and national security.

Dr Binoy Kampmark (0400 547 842 or binoy.kampmark@rmit.edu.au)

Topics: Trump effect, US midterm elections, democrats, republicans

"The midterms are always difficult for the President's party to win.  In the post-World War II period, the median seat losses for the President's party is around 22.

"The Democrats are confident to claim the House, but the Senate may be more problematic.

"The Democrats are also facing their own challenges within their party, given the failure of Hillary Clinton to win the White House in 2016.

"The big question here is how the Trump Factor will play out: will it actually assist or impair the Republicans?”

Dr. Binoy Kampmark is a Senior Lecturer in the School of Global, Urban and Social Sciences at RMIT University. He is also a former Commonwealth Scholar at Selwyn College, Cambridge and a contributing editor to CounterPunch. He writes extensively on US politics.

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