Course Summary
The pace of change in the 21st century has clearly accelerated. We are seeing far greater leaps in education, technology, complexity, volatility, connectivity and networks that indicate that we are experiencing exponential leaps of change on key drivers of progress in this century. New technologies, distributed networks, power distributions and movements driving social change are opening up incredible possibilities unimaginable a decade ago. However, this is juxtaposed against a world that is increasingly becoming more unequal, more disconnected and more divided, with the real risk of increasing polarized societies, increasing natural disasters, protracted crisis and the overarching threats of climate change and global pandemics. Communities face a prospective future where more and more people feel unheard, feel a loss of control and do not trust the institutions and systems that play a role in framing their lives. Within this changing landscape, there are emerging new forms of humanitarian assistance as well as non-traditional actors who are in some cases are a lot more agile and effective than traditional aid organisations.
Anticipating crises of the future means not only developing more efficient relief delivery mechanisms and protection strategies, it means analysing the systems and environments driving change and shaping the future. Future and Foresight enhance our capacity to anticipate change in complex environments, surface hidden assumptions and uncover the leverages for change that we need in order facilitate global good. It shows us how to make sense of emerging trends, signals of change, their potential and real impact on development and humanitarian need. It pushes us out of our comfort zone, to consider the broader ecosystem context in which we operate and provoke us to design policies, processes and behaviours that are not merely an extrapolation of the present.
Futures and Foresight (FF) work has been a mainstay and influencer of decisions for most large corporates for many years. In recent years, it has begun to play a more important role in the planning and work of large humanitarian and development organisations. An FF approach aims to inject rigour, data, analysis and evidence that can help us predict and understand trends that will impact our work into the future. FF work can focus on long (20 years plus) or on short (within the next 5 years) and is primarily used to influence and inform organisational strategy, policy, prioritisation and focus. It will help us adapt, evolve and identify more effective ways to tackle complex humanitarian and development issues. FF work typically employs a variety of approaches that range from blend data analysis to visioning activities. When effectively developed they can have profound effects on what we do and how we do it.