Given the relative risks involved, it seems like many working poor are choosing to go out. Pictures from various developing country regions, particularly in Africa, are showing piecemeal workers peddling goods and services in not-so-busy streets. The fact that streets are not as busy as before, means that individuals are likely to increase the amount of time that they spend working to make ends meet. Furthermore, with many schools closing around the developing world, the negative income shock is also likely to push some children into labour and out of their homes.
All this means that lockdowns, as they stand, in many developing countries are unlikely to work. The situation can be made worse by governments enforcing lockdowns with harsh penalties or even jail time, as seems to be happening in some countries. Indeed, if a household member is fined or goes to jail, other household members may need to respond by increasing their labour supply. Thus, further breaking lockdown regulations.
Ironically, it is those that probably need the lockdown the most, that are most unlikely to be able to afford it. The poorest segments of society are most vulnerable to infection. Many poor areas in developing countries are characterised by very poor sanitation facilities. Often households share unimproved facilities with other households. Facilities, like bucket latrines and unprotected wells, are a very easy way for households to pass infections to each other. Household members that are unable to practice social distancing for economic reasons and use these types of facilities can easily infect people both inside and outside their household. As they leave their communities, infections like the coronavirus can easily spread more broadly.
As such, the health sector that many of the poor access in many developing countries is already saturated and under intense pressure.
Furthermore, many of the poor in developing countries are food insecure. This can translate into compromised immunities and susceptibility to infection. Strict lockdowns can perhaps make this situation worse or put pressure on health sectors from illnesses not necessarily associated with the coronavirus, but with malnutrition.
This is very problematic considering that many people in the poorest areas in developing countries do not have access to quality healthcare. Often medical facilities are far away and even when they are accessible, they are poorly resourced. As such, the health sector that many of the poor access in many developing countries is already saturated and under intense pressure.
What economies need to do now is to cushion the blow to the poorest members of their society, recognising the fact that currently they need to go out. This will be difficult for governments facing heavily constrained budgets, yet not impossible. Developing countries must try to maintain and expand existing cash transfers to poor households. Most developing nations have different types of cash transfer programs. Many are conditional on children attending school or regularly visiting health professionals. In these strange times, perhaps governments can experiment with cash transfers conditional on adults and children staying at home.
Professor Alberto Posso is a member of the Centre for International Development in the College of Business and Law at RMIT University, Melbourne
