Environmental shocks and well-being in Vietnam

Globally, natural disasters kill an average of 60,000 people per year. Ninety-five per cent of disaster related deaths occur in developing countries ^[1]. Economic losses associated with natural disasters are estimated to be 15 times higher today than they were in the 1950s. Further, disasters caused (on average) about US$60 billion in losses every year from 1994 to 2010.

Factors affecting disaster vulnerability

Location is an important factor associated with disaster vulnerability. People naturally want to live near their place of work. Yet this can increase their vulnerability to environmental shocks. For example, most fishermen will want to live close to the coast, but this places them at greater risk to storm surges, flooding and possibly tsunamis. In some places the local environment is exploited, predisposing such areas to disasters such as landslides and raising the probability of flooding.

Environmental shocks such as storms, cyclones, floods and droughts comprise an important part of these natural disasters. Such shocks are widely acknowledged to disproportionately affect the poorest in a society because they have fewer ways of coping with these shocks. For example, they may have less or no savings and inadequate housing. Moreover, recurrent shocks increase the vulnerability of the poor to disasters, possibly placing communities perpetually at risk and reducing their ability to break out of a poverty cycle.

Centre for International Development research

Researchers at RMIT University’s Centre for International Development recently confirmed that poorer households are more vulnerable to the increasing frequency and intensity of natural disasters using household-level data from Vietnam. Adopting a novel empirical technique, they also find that disasters raise the probability of migration in the case of rural households, both directly through the damage or destruction of infrastructure, as well as indirectly through the impact on agricultural output and therefore household income ^[2]. Migration is clearly a coping strategy although some households may lack the means to do so. Poorer households might be unable to afford the costs of migration.

In a different study, the researchers find another way that rural households respond to an environmental shock. Rural households in Vietnam that experience above‐average rainfall are associated with increases in child labour. In response to these shocks, children enter agricultural work as well as spending more time doing household chores. This is likely due to above‐average rainfall being associated either with improved agricultural harvests or crop failure both of which require additional labour that is undertaken by both adults and children ^[3] . The findings from this study therefore indicate that environmental shocks in Vietnam might impact on a child’s education if increased labour comes at the expense of less time in school.

In a further study, the researchers decided to examine the impact of environmental shock on child health. Existing literature demonstrates that environmental shocks can impact on child health by reducing household income or through increasing the incidence of disease. Their paper identifies and confirms a third mechanism: shocks impacting on parents’ mental health which, in turn, reduce children’s physical health. They also find that households that receive support, from both formal and informal channels, are less vulnerable to rainfall shocks, in terms of their negative impact on child health outcomes.

Recommendations

All of these findings suggest that the impact of environmental shocks should be an important policy consideration in Vietnam. The country is experiencing rapid urbanization and large cities are likely to face increasing pressure from intensified migration flows following disasters. Local and national government should improve the ability of rural households to cope with environment shocks as this can reduce rural-urban migration as well as mitigate any adverse impacts on child labour and child health. Access to credit and insurance, for instance, are paramount to achieve this.

While building resilience to environmental shocks is important, so too is responding to shocks when they occur. It is important that effective government support is provided quickly to the most affected communities to assist with the recovery from environmental shocks. However, the fourth recent study by the researchers in the Centre for International Development find that the provincial allocation of government funds for disaster support in Vietnam is influenced by political connections ^[5]. To ensure these funds maximise the impact on recovery from environmental shocks it is crucial that transparency is improved and funds are allocated on the basis of need.

Trong-Anh Trinh, Simon Feeny and Alberto Posso - The Centre for International Development

References

[1] Data from https://ourworldindata.org/natural-disasters[2] Trong-Anh Trinh, Simon Feeny, Alberto Posso (forthcoming). The Impact of Natural Disasters on Migration: Findings from Vietnam. Journal of Demographic Economics.[3] Trong-Anh Trinh, Alberto Posso, Simon Feeny (2019). Child Labor and Rainfall Deviation: Panel Data Evidence from Rural Vietnam. The Developing Economies.

https://doi.org/10.1111/deve.12215

[4] Trong-Anh Trinh, Simon Feeny, Alberto Posso (2020). Rainfall Shocks and Child Health: The Role of Parental Mental Health. Climate & Development.

https://doi.org/10.1080/17565529.2020.1716672

[5] Trong-Anh Trinh, Simon Feeny, Alberto Posso. Political connections and post-disaster assistance in rural Vietnam. Working paper.