The misinformation wars: Kooyong electorate

In the prized blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong, once held by the Liberal Party founder and the longest-serving Prime Minister Sir Robert Menzies, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg is facing a strong challenge from independent Monique Ryan, a health professional.

Mr Frydenberg has held Kooyong since 2010, and the seat has had a conservative member since Federation.

To fend off the challenge, Mr Frydenberg and the Liberals are spending massively on social media advertising promoting the negative narrative that Dr Ryan is a ‘fake’ independent.

It is the same trope the Liberals are firing at independents challenging in the Liberal-held seats of North Sydney, Wentworth, Goldstein and Curtin.

The ‘fake’ label draws from the familiar language used by former US President Donald Trump to dismiss critics in politics and media. While the term was initially used to describe fabricated information on the internet, Trump weaponised the word against opponents, describing them as ‘fake’. He dismissed embarrassing stories as ‘fake news’.

Exactly what is a ‘fake independent’ candidate is not easily defined.

Professor Graeme Orr, a specialist in electoral law from the University of Queensland, told RMIT FactLab there are no laws to prevent a candidate from using the label ‘independent’ even if they had previous ties to a political party.

He said it would be rare for a serious candidate to run without any prior affiliation with a party or political movement.

“In an otherwise safe Liberal seat, the majority may be upset if an independent supports a Labor minority government,” Professor Orr said.

“But a true independent would be open to either type of government and would be mad to commit prior to any negotiations after an election, to maximise the ability to leverage the policies they ran on pork-barrel for their electorate.”

He added that independents do not have to declare if they would side with one party or another.

Dr Ryan has rejected the ‘fake’ independent claims made against her and said she had never hidden her membership of the ALP that ended more than ten years ago when the Rudd government failed to take action on climate change.

She said she would negotiate with both major parties on the basis of her election policies:  effective action on climate change and support for a federal ICAC.

Selling the ‘Fake’ message on social media

Although this intensely fought contest is playing out in the mainstream media and on public billboards and posters, FactLab investigated the less visible campaign being waged online, especially advertising on Facebook.

Available data confirms this is an epic contest where history may be rewritten come polling day.

The outcome may well be determined by social media advertising dollars and slick ads aimed at those who do not follow the mainstream media but mix their news with personal chat groups and online shopping.

The Kooyong electorate is where the ‘fake’ narrative is being pushed the hardest and also where it is likely to resonate given that a large number of Australians receive their news from social media. So what does the data tell us?

Facebook advertising in Kooyong compared with other electorates

Campaign spending on Facebook advertising is highest in Liberal vs. independents seats (top 3 - Kooyong, Wentworth and North Sydney).

The Liberals are spending extraordinary sums of money to save the Treasurer and Deputy Liberal Party leader.

Here is a breakdown:

Source: UQ Election Dashboard (from 5 May)

On Facebook advertisements, the Liberals have spent exponentially more on the Kooyong campaign than any other seat. 

Source: UQ Election Dashboard (from 5 May)

How much have Dr Ryan and Mr Frydenberg spent selling their message on social media

Since January 1, Dr Ryan has spent an estimated total of $148,415 on campaign advertising online, compared to Mr Frydenberg who has spent an estimated total of $116,714.

The figures are derived from the Google Transparency Report for Political Advertising in Australia, which covers political advertising on Google, YouTube and partners, and the University of Queensland’s Election Ad Data Dashboard, which covers Facebook ads during the election period.

This is the breakdown. According to the Google Transparency Report for Political Advertising in Australia, including political ads on Google and YouTube, Dr Ryan has spent $42,600, compared to Mr Frydenberg having spent $9,150. It is important to note, that the Victorian division of the Liberal Party has spent $9,450 and the Liberal Party of Australia has spent  $164,250.

According to The University of Queensland’s Dashboard, Dr Ryan has spent $105,815 since January 1 and Mr Frydenberg has spent $107,564. 

What do Dr Ryan’s ads say?

What do the Liberal Party Facebook ads say?

How far do these Facebook ads reach?

One of the biggest Liberal Facebook ads targeting the independents received 10,000 to 15,000 impressions.

On the other hand, one of Dr Ryan’s biggest Facebook ads targeting Mr Frydenberg received 80,000 to 90,000 impressions.

Mr Frydenberg has also used YouTube to promote the ‘fake independent ‘narrative. Six Sky News segments (April 24, April 27 and May 2) featuring interviews with Mr Frydenberg about his election campaign have been viewed over 6,500 times.

Climate 200 and GetUp! online campaign support for independents

Dr Ryan is one of the 22 independent candidates supported by Climate 200.

Climate 200 has spent a considerable amount on national advertising online. According to Google Transparency Report for Political Advertising in Australia, Climate 200 has launched 18 election campaign ads in support of independents since January 1 at a total cost of $7,050.

According to Facebook Ad Library, Climate 200 has spent $465,104 on political and election ads since January 1, with seven directly supporting Dr Ryan’s campaign in Kooyong.

One of the biggest Climate 200 ads in support of Dr Ryan recorded 20,000 to 25,000 impressions.

GetUp! on the other hand, has made the seats of Kooyong and Goldstein the top priority of its Victorian election campaign while noting its support of independents with strong climate agendas.

According to the PoliDashboard Facebook Political Ads Module, GetUp! has spent between $29,200 and $45,570 since January 4 with the majority in NSW, followed closely by Queensland and Victoria. Current available data makes difficult to decipher which electorates are specifically targeted by GetUp! ads.

Other Liberal lines of attack against independents:

In late March, the Liberal Party launched a website called Not Independent, featuring the ‘Beware of the Fake Independents’ slogan on its homepage.

According to Crowd Tangle, the Liberal’s Not Independent website was first shared on Facebook by Liberal Senator for Queensland James McGrath on April 4, 2022 and received over 160 reactions. In the post, Senator McGrath directed his followers to sign up to the website to “hold these fake independents to account”.

The Not Independent website has since been shared a total of 1,434 times and has received over 1,300 interactions.