RMIT expert available for comment on European Summit

Professor Bruce Wilson (0414 236 765 or bruce.wilson@rmit.edu.au)  

Topics: EU summit, EU affairs, Brexit 

"The European summit held overnight to approve the withdrawal agreement between the European Union and the United Kingdom is a crucial step in the process of the UK leaving the EU on 29 March, 2019.

"However, it does not seal the deal. The Withdrawal Agreement will then need the approval of the UK parliament and the EU’s remaining 27-member states. While the latter is more or less assured, but can't be taken for granted, there are widespread doubts about whether the agreement will pass the UK parliament.

"Alongside the withdrawal agreement, a political declaration was also approved. The declaration will outline key features of the future relationship between the EU and the UK. The details and formal arrangements of this future relationship will then be negotiated over the 21, perhaps 33, months after 29 March 2019.

"It is widely anticipated that the future deal will include some form of customs union between the UK and the EU, with both parties expressing an aspiration that this will be more ambitious than any existing trade agreement.

"This points to the nub of the crisis in the UK. The UK's capacity to negotiate new trade deals with other countries, including Australia, will be limited depending on how much the UK remains part of the EU's single market.

"British industry and the EU are keen for as much of the single market to continue as possible, while the Brexiteers want as much room as possible for new deals elsewhere. These two things are contradictory.

"Similarly, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland is at the heart of this tension. The more that current rules stay the same, the less the Irish border is an issue. The more that is different, the more it is called into question."

Professor Bruce Wilson is the Director of the EU Centre in the School of Global, Urban and Social Studies at RMIT University. Professor Wilson is an expert on European Union affairs with 20 years’ experience and a regular media commentator on the topic.

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