Chief Investigators from the European Union and Australia Trade Relations and Ambitious Negotiations (EUATRAN) Centre at RMIT University share their analysis on the recent developments with the EU–Australia deal and the global trade activity surrounding it:
Professor Emeritus Bruce Wilson, former director of the RMIT EU Centre of Excellence: ‘The time for this agreement is long overdue. Negotiators were so close in 2023, and as a result of missing that opportunity, Australia has continued to be billions of dollars poorer. Agriculture matters, but Australia is now predominantly a services economy, and it is the service sector that will benefit greatly from this agreement when it is finalised and implemented.’
Dr Kaye Quek, Co-director of the RMIT EUATRAN Centre of Excellence: ‘Once finalised, the EU–Australia trade agreement will be instructive as to how the EU understands its position in the new global order and how it seeks to remake that order. Where the agreement with India has been described as the ‘mother of all’ trade deals, the rhetoric around creating an ‘ambitious’ trade deal with Australia now seems to be tempered. Is finalising a deal from a weakened position the EU’s strategy for promoting its strength? Studying the finalised EU–Australia agreement alongside its contemporaries (namely, those with India and Mercosur) will give us a clearer sense of what EU global leadership might look like.’
Professor Julian Lee, Co-director of the RMIT EUATRAN Centre of Excellence: ‘The complexities of negotiating trade agreements, irrespective of the willingness of the parties, will always be considerable. There is a wide array of stakeholders and potential political impacts to consider, in addition to the predicted economic impacts. The nature of the EU presents still further complexities, and the present state of the EU –Mercosur trade agreement is a case in point. The conclusion of it in January 2026, many years after negotiations began, was a short-lived achievement. Within weeks, the European Parliament referred the agreement to the Court of Justice of the European Union (CJEU) to decide whether features of the deal had legal validity. Whether the anticipated benefits of this agreement will ever be realised remains uncertain. What is certain is that trade agreements with the EU, such as the potential EU–Australia one, could have a very long and uncertain way to go before being truly concluded and brought into effect.’
Below is a breakdown of key events relevant to the broader trade environment and trade negotiations between the EU and Australia so far this year:
1 January: China’s 55% tariff on beef imports that exceed quota levels came into effect, with quota increasing annually.
- The tariff-free quota for Australia is set at 205,000 tonnes for 2026, while Australia’s 2025 export to China was around 265,000 tonnes.
- Chinese Ministry of Commerce: ‘The increase in the amount of imported beef has seriously damaged China’s domestic industry.’
- Australian PM Anthony Albanese: ‘This is something that wasn’t Australia being singled out ... this is a general position that China has put [sic].’
17 January: EU–Mercosur free trade agreement was signed.
27 January: EU and India locking in trade deal ‘to strengthen stability in the international system’ at a time of ‘turmoil in the global order’, says India PM Narendra Modi.
- Sensitive European agricultural sectors (e.g. beef, chicken meat, rice and sugar) are fully protected in the agreement.
- European Commission: ‘All Indian imports will continue to have to respect the EU's strict health and food safety rules.’
- This largest FTA in India’s history will also boost defence ties in the Indo-Pacific.
- The US accused the EU of ‘funding their own war’ while India has strong ties with Russia.
11 February: Don Farrell, Australian Minister for Trade and Tourism, visits Brussels to advance negotiations for an FTA.
- Prior to the visit, Australian agricultural stakeholders had been expressing concerns on market access for Australian beef, with EU proposing to cap Australian imports around 30,000 tonnes and Canberra pushing for 40,000 tonnes.
- The EU’s current quota for Australian beef is 3389 tonnes, set in 2018 to make space for US beef in response to Trump’s 2018 tariff threat on European cars. Prior to that, Australia was exporting up to 17,000 tonnes annually to the EU.
- 13 February: ‘Good progress was achieved in narrowing gaps on a small number of outstanding matters’, from the joint statement on Australia–EU ministerial meeting in Brussels.
- Aside from trade, the deal would strengthen cooperation on critical minerals as the EU looks to diversify its supply away from China, boost worker mobility and enhance security and defence ties.
