Australia’s Trade and the Threat of Autonomous Uncrewed Underwater Vehicles

Adversaries are actively building autonomous uncrewed, underwater vehicles (UUVs) and other artificial enabled-platforms to bolster maritime offensive and defensive capabilities. UUVs are considered ‘game changers’ due to their low cost, extended range and their ability to cover an array of mission briefs.

Australia is particularly vulnerable to the threat of UUVs. Maritime trade, for instance, accounts for 99 percent of the country’s total trade volume, with two-thirds of exports traversing the South China Sea. Just-in-time supply chain processes coupled with poor strategic resilience has created maritime bottlenecks that have, until now, been considered acceptable risks. What we are also seeing is the increased technical capabilities development of UUVs, UUVs is five or ten years time will be very different to current UUVs.

This report examines the future security threats posed to Australian maritime trade by autonomous submersible weapons systems. Supported by the Department of Defence’s Strategic Policy Grants Program, investigators from RMIT University’s Centre for Cyber Security Research and Innovation (CCSRI), Charles Darwin University and WiseLaw conducted an impact analysis examining the likelihood, impact, and mitigation steps related to autonomous submersible weapon systems scenarios. In doing so, researchers consulted 50 stakeholders across government, industry, and academia, to validate the findings into current UUV development, vulnerabilities in Australian critical maritime infrastructure, and risk management practices.

The report identifies a number of challenges that Australia faces in mitigating the UUV threat, including:

• A lack of clarity in the legal parameters for UUV deployment’
• A critical shortfall in strategic fuel reserves;
• The need to develop new doctrines and procedures for dealing with the unique challenges posed by UUVs;
• The development of UUVs is outpacing regional and international agreements, which could lead to legal challenges in the future;
• The Nord Stream sabotage in 2022 has caused governments to rethink submarine infrastructure and develop new capabilities for detecting and countering UUVs;
• As UUV development progresses, off-the-shelf UUV variants will proliferate, adding a multiplier effect to existing maritime threats;
• The importance of protecting Australia’s seabed critical infrastructure.

The report makes a number of recommendations to address these challenges, including:

• Clarifying the legal parameters for UUV deployment;
• Rapidly implementing a Whole-of-Government Fuel Council.
• Incorporating the role of UUV operations and AI-enabled infrastructure in maritime security strategy;
• The need to develop a clear and comprehensive maritime security strategy that addresses the UUV threat;
• The need to invest in new technologies to detect and counter UUVs;
• The need to work with international partners to develop a shared understandings of the UUV threat and to cooperate on mitigation measures.

The time available for Australia to address the emerging UUV threat is rapidly shrinking. It is important that the Australian government and Defence consider taking action to mitigate these threats and protect Australia's maritime trade and security.

The Strategic Policy Grants Program run by the Department of Defence is an open and competitive mechanism for Defence to support independent research, events and activities. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Australian Government or Defence.